Changes in temperature extremes
On a regional basis, a number of studies of extremes have been completed as a part of a series of regional workshops coordinated by the joint World Meteorological Organization WMO Climate Variability and Predictability Climate Change Indices CLIVAR CCI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices ETCCDMI . Each of these workshops used a set software that calculated extremes defined in Frich et al. 2002 . These workshops included the Caribbean Peterson et al., 2002 , southern...
Introduction Xew
Outbreaks of anomalous summer heat occur each year somewhere on Earth. Typically associated with persistent blocking anticyclones, summertime heat waves in the mid-latitudes have a coherent spatial structure that is characterized by lack of rainfall, dry air and soil, and increased fire risk. Disastrous consequences Macfarlane and Waller, 1976 Sheridan and Kalkstein, 2004 can result from hot spells that are extreme in their duration and spatial extent. The summer of 2003, very likely the...
Introduction Eul
Economic losses attributed to natural disasters have increased from US 75.5 billion in the 1960s to US 659.9 billion in the 1990s United Nations Development Programme UNDP , 2004 , for an annual growth rate of approximately 8 . Private sector data also show rising insured losses over a similar period Munich Re, 2001 Swiss Re, 2005 . Both reinsurers and some climate scientists have argued that these increases demonstrate a link between anthropogenically induced global warming and catastrophe...
Illustrative reinsurance example
Reinsurers tend to work on very focused risk portfolios, because they are dealing with risks that are unacceptable to primary insurers. The example below illustrates how such risks could escalate in the future and become unacceptable, even to reinsurers. Suppose that in 2000 the reinsurer assessed there were three possible event outcomes normality, an extreme event defined as a 1-in-100-year probability , and a catastrophe defined as having a 1,000-year return period . Swiss Re's current...
Tropical Atlantic Main Development Region temperature trends
The region of the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean extending from 10 N to 20 N is often referred to as the Main Development Region MDR for Atlantic hurricane activity, owing to the large portion of major hurricanes that can be traced to disturbances originating there e.g., Goldenberg et al., 2001 Bell and Chelliah, 2006 . Here we explore possible causes for a warming of this region during the twentieth century. Shown in Figure 7.1 are 10-year running mean surface temperature indices for...
Climate Variability United States Hail
Convective storms play a vital role in weather and climate. They act to redistribute heat, moisture, and trace gases in the vertical and in the horizontal. In the tropics and in the warm season in the mid-latitudes, they provide a significant part of the precipitation. Therefore, they are beneficial to society, Climate Extremes and Society, ed. H. F. Diaz and R. J. Murnane. Published by Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press 2008. particularly in agriculture. When convection is...
Underlying problems and approaches
Part of the problem in defining severe convection is the susceptibility of different parts of society to effects of the same weather event. For example, a large amount of small hail less than 2 cm in diameter may have little impact on urban areas, but could be devastating to agricultural interests at certain times of the year and for certain crops. Similarly, strong winds may have minimal impact in an area of grassland used for cattle ranching, whereas the same winds may be damaging in a...
References Mil
Baird, A. H., and Marshall, P. A. 2002 . Mortality, growth and reproduction in Scleractinian corals following bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 237, 133-41. Bak, R. P. M. 1976 . The growth of coral colonies and the importance of crustose coralline algae and burrowing sponges in relation with carbonate accumulation. Netherlands Journal of Sea Research, 10, 285-337. Baker, A. C., Stargert, C. J., McClanahan, T. R., and Glynn, P. W. 2004 . Corals' adaptive...
References Pnm
Changnon, S., Pielke, R., Sylves, R., and Pulwarty, R. 2001 . Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 437-42. Climatic Research Unit CRU 2006 . University of East Anglia, Norwich. Collins, D. J., and Lowe, S. P. 2001 . A macro validation dataset for U.S. hurricane models. Downton, M. W., and Pielke, R. A., Jr. 2005 . How accurate are disaster loss data The case of U.S. flood damage. Natural Hazards, 35,...
Munich Re estimates of climaterelated losses
Munich Re has been compiling statistics on natural disasters for many years because they illustrate the need for risk management. Their definition of what are ''major natural catastrophes'' follows the criteria laid down by the United Nations the affected region's ability to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, interregional or international assistance is necessary, thousands are killed, hundreds ofthousands are made homeless, and there are substantial economic losses and or considerable...
European storms
This author reported a striking correlation between winter temperatures and the occurrence and strength of great European storms, using the Central England Temperature CET, as measured by the Hadley Centre as a proxy for temperature, and Lamb's Lamb, 1991 record of great storms Chartered Insurance Institute CII , 1994 . The data in Table 13.8 show that storms are twice as frequent in warm months as in medium months, and 150 more common than Table 13.8. Great European storms and winter...
Definition of extreme events
Extreme events are generally easy to recognize but difficult to define. This is due to several reasons. First, there is no unique definition for what is meant by the word extreme several definitions are in common use. Second, the concept of extremeness is relative and so strongly depends on context. Third, the words severe, ''rare,'' ''extreme,'' and high-impact are often used interchangeably. 1.2.1 Severe, rare, extreme, or high-impact In an attempt to alleviate some of the confusion, here are...
Modeling coral growth in Curacao
Curacao is completely surrounded by fringing reefs, which provide protection, food, and income to the island population of approximately 150,000. There are several documented natural and anthropogenic threats to the Curacao reefs. Massive coral bleaching impacted the Curacao coral reef in 1987, 1990, and 1995 hurricanes and disease have caused considerable damage and massive coastal development has led to increased sedimentation and sewage, which are also harmful to the reefs Burke and Maidens,...
Extreme precipitation
Increased temperatures lead to an increase in the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere, such that with each 1 C increase we have an increase of about 7 in the water-holding capacity Trenberth et al., 2003 . Furthermore, observations suggest that as this capacity increases with increased temperatures, relative humidity remains more or less constant, resulting in an increase in water vapor in the atmosphere owing to enhanced drying of the surface. Figure 2.5 shows 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90...
Acknowledgments Vbc
We are grateful for the help provided by Irene Fischer-Bruns, Iris Grabemann, and Beate Gardeike. Alexandersson, H., Schmith, T., Iden, K., and Tuomenvirta, H. 1998 . Long-term trend variations of the storm climate over northwest Europe. Global Atmosphere-Ocean System, 6, 97-120. Alexandersson, H., Schmith, T., Iden, K., and Tuomenvirta, H. 2000 . Trends of storms in northwest Europe derived from an updated pressure data set. Climate Research, 14, 71-3. Aspelien, T. 2006 . The use of long-term...
References Vxe
Arnell, N. W. 1999 . The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe a continental perspective. Global Environmental Change, 9, 5-23. Begert, M., et al. 2003 . Homogenization of climate time series and computation of the 1961-1990 norms. MeteoSuisse Publication, 67, Zurich, Switzerland in German . Beniston, M. 2004a . Climatic Change and Its Impacts. An Overview Focusing on Switzerland. Dordrecht, The Netherlands, and Boston, MA Kluwer Academic Publishers. Beniston, M. 2004b ....
Genesis of the Risk Prediction Initiative
The large losses resulting from Hurricane Andrew put many insurance companies out of business or in difficult straits, and a significant fraction of capital available for use by the insurance industry was used to pay claims. The resultant depleted pool of capital available for insurance drove up reinsurance prices and increased the potential returns for companies offering reinsurance.1 A number of new property catastrophe reinsurers were formed in Bermuda to take advantage of this business...
Irradiance and coral growth rate
The abundance of corals in the tropics compared with the extratropics poleward of latitudes 23 , which is apparent from Figure 9.1, is caused by differences in seasonal temperatures and the levels of annual solar irradiance, or insolation. The photosynthetic rates of zooxanthellae are dependent on both light and temperature Muller-Parker and D'Elia, 1997 . As a result, corals are found in warm, clear, shallow waters that have sufficient irradiance necessary for photosynthesis. Reef corals can...
Evidence Of Trends In Daily Climate Extremes Over Southern And West Africa
Aguilar, E., et al. 2005 . Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D23107, doi 10.1029 2005JD006119. Akinremi, O. O., McGinn, S. M., and Cutforth, H. W. 1999 . Precipitation trends on the Canadian prairies. Journal of Climate, 12, 2996-3003. Alexander, L., et al. 2006 . Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111,...
Info Ilg
Figure 7.2. Observed sea surface temperature variations in the MDR from HadISST red and ERSST blue datasets vs. CM2 historical climate simulations using a all forcings, b natural forcings only, or c anthropogenic forcings only. Ten-year running mean anomalies for the August-October season, referenced to 1881-1920 means in degrees Celsius, are shown. Black dashed curves are individual CM2.0 or CM2.1 ensemble members thick black curves are the CM2.0 CM2.1 ensemble means n 8 experiments with all...
Loss amplification
The traditional approach in catastrophe loss modeling has been to employ an engineering definition of damage as the basis from which to determine insured losses. In both the two major catastrophe losses of the 1990s - Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and the 1994 Northridge earthquake - it had been recognized that an additional factor termed ''demand surge'' was required to reflect all elements of the increase in losses, beyond the expectations of the predicted costs to repair the damages. In the...
Multidimensional nature of extreme events
In addition to this potential source of confusion, extreme events have a variety of different attributes and so cannot be completely described by a single number. The multidimensional nature of extreme events is often overlooked in rankings of the events based on only one of the attributes e.g., the category numbers for hurricanes based solely on maximum surface wind speed . Extreme events have attributes such as rate probability per unit time of occurrence For example, a major hurricane is...
Introduction
Human society is particularly vulnerable to severe weather and climate events that cause damage to property and infrastructure, injury, and even loss of life. Although generally rare at any particular location, such events cause a disproportionate amount of loss. In this chapter, I attempt to describe a framework for classifying, diagnosing, and understanding extreme weather and climate events. The multidimensional aspect of complex extreme events will be discussed, and statistical methods will...
Statistical diagnosis of extreme events
This section will briefly describe some statistical approaches for interpreting extreme events. A more comprehensive discussion is given in the excellent book by Coles 2001 . 1.3.1 Point process modeling of simple extreme events In order to make the analysis more amenable to mathematical modeling, it is useful to neglect important attributes such as temporal duration, spatial scale, and multivariate dependencies. The IPCC 2001 defined ''simple extreme'' events to be ''individual local weather...