Box Revenue management in Botswana a success story
One of the world's poorest countries at independence in 1966, Botswana has done remarkably well in using its mineral wealth, mainly from diamond resources, to transform the economy. Recognising that the revenues from diamonds represented sales of a declining asset, the government of Botswana saw clearly the need for reinvestment of these revenues in order to sustain development. Botswana adopted a policy which requires that all mineral revenues be re-invested and devised its own rule-of-thumb...
Nonconventional gas
Non-conventional gas embraces a set of gas resources that are generally contiguous in nature, sometimes referred to as resource plays in the industry, that require special drilling and stimulation techniques to release the gas from the formations in which they occur. Non-conventional gas includes coalbed methane, tight gas sands and gas shales. Such resources are widespread worldwide, but their development has generally been limited so far to North America. Determining the amount of gas in...
Box The IEA fieldbyfield oil production database
The IEA has compiled a database containing the full crude oil production history and a range of key technical parameters for a total of 798 oilfields worldwide. To the best of our knowledge, the database includes all of the world's 54 super-giant fields that have ever produced, as well as the bulk of the giant producing fields 263 out of a total of around 320 .6 Of the remaining 481 fields, 285 are large fields, representing at least half of all the fields in this category in the world and most...
Figure Proven reserves of natural gas
Natural gas reserves, like those of oil, are unevenly dispersed across the world, being highly concentrated in a small number of countries and fields. Three countries - Russia, Iran and Qatar - hold 56 of the world's remaining proven reserves, while just 25 fields contain 48 of the global total. The Middle East as a whole holds 41 of reserves and Russia alone one-quarter. Regional shares in global production are very different from shares in reserves the Middle East, for example, accounts for...
Oil supply prospects
Paul Bailey Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Ashok Belani Schlumberger, France Johannes Benigni JBC Energy, Austria Jan Bygdevoll Norwegian Petroleum Directorate Alessandro Campo Unicredit, Italy William Davie John Fitzgerald Dario Garofalo John Guy Gilbert Hamaide Sigurd Heiberg Anouk Honor Peter Jackson Tor Kartevold Jostein Dahl Karlsen Ryan Kauppila Tim Klett David Knapp Sally Kornfeld Ken Koyama Alessandro Lanza Colin Lyle William Martin Yves Mathieu Kenneth McKellar...
Investment in renewable energy
In the Reference Scenario, total cumulative investment in modern forms of renewable energy in the period 2007 to 2030 amounts to 5.5 trillion in year-2007 dollars . Most of the investment in renewables - 60 of the total - is for electricity generation, followed by investment in renewables for heat and biofuels, which account for 36 and 4 of the total, respectively. Total investment in renewables for electricity generation in the Reference Scenario from 2007 to 2030 amounts to 3.3 trillion this...
Industry Plv
In the 450 Policy Scenario, the industry sector in OECD faces a much higher CO2 price after 2020 than in the 550 Policy Scenario. Energy-related CO2 emissions from the industry sector in Other Major Economies are also limited by a carbon price, due to the cap-and-trade system introduced after 2020. Other Countries are assumed to implement the same national policies and measures as in the 550 Policy Scenario, but they benefit from the faster deployment of technology worldwide in the 450 Policy...
Part A Global energy trends to 1
Chapter 1. Context and principal assumptions 1.1 1.2 Energy subsidies in non-OECD countries, 2007 Rate of growth of per-capita income by region Assumed natural gas and coal prices relative to crude oil Typical lifetimes of energy-related capital stock 2.1 World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario 2.2 World primary energy demand by region in the Reference Scenario 2.3 Incremental primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2006-2030 2.4 Per-capita primary energy...
Power generation
In the 550 Policy Scenario, OECD countries are assumed to implement policies to encourage the deployment of low-carbon technologies in the power-generation sector, in addition to a cap-and-trade system. Cap-and-trade arrangements are already in place or are being considered in most OECD countries. Such explicit pricing of carbon makes renewables, nuclear and CCS technologies more competitive against fossil-fuel based electricity generation. But in OECD countries, successful deployment of...
Acknowledgements
This study was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist OCE of the International Energy Agency IEA in co-operation with other offices of the Agency. The study was designed and directed by Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA. Trevor Morgan was in charge of co-ordinating the analysis on oil and gas supply Laura Cozzi was responsible for the co-ordination of the analysis of climate-policy scenarios Hideshi Emoto was in charge of modelling of energy demand, Maria Argiri of power generation...
illII II
As a result of the assumed tighter emissions cap in OECD , the carbon price faced by the power sector over 2020-2030 is higher than in the 550 Policy Scenario over the same period. This price, which reaches 180 per tonne of CO2 by 2030 makes renewables, nuclear and CCS technologies more competitive against basic fossil-fuel electricity generation and favours faster deployment of these technologies. Economic incentives are assumed to be supplemented by tighter regulatory requirements, leading to...
International oil companies in profitable retreat
The international oil companies, which have traditionally dominated the global oil and gas industry, are increasingly being squeezed by the growing power of the national companies and by dwindling reserves and production in mature basins outside OPEC countries. Their recent record profits and robust balance sheets mask increasing difficulties in acquiring new upstream assets and expanding production in the long term. Indeed, the five super-majors - ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Total and Chevron -...
Ultimately recoverable resources
Reserves estimates give an indication of how much oil could be developed and produced in the near to medium term. The total volume of oil which might ultimately be produced commercially is known as ultimately recoverable resources. This category includes oil initial proven and probable reserves from discovered fields including oil already produced , both in production and yet to be developed, reserves growth see below and hydrocarbons that are yet to be found. From a larger resource base, more...
OECD Europe
European gas production peaked in 2004 at close to 330 bcm and is now in long-term decline. Continued growth in Norway has not been sufficient to offset a rapid decline in output in the United Kingdom, for many years Europe's largest producer, despite a recent surge in drilling for gas in the North Sea. In aggregate, production in OECD Europe in the Reference Scenario is projected to decline steadily from 305 bcm in 2006 to 282 bcm in 2015 and 217 bcm in 2030 - a fall of one-third on current...
Implications for oilproduction capacity
The more than 570 upstream projects currently under construction sanctioned and planned - most of them involving new fields - will add in total around 28 mb d of new peak oil-production capacity in the period to 2015, on the assumption that their completion is not delayed. Even though spending by their national companies amounts to under 10 of the global total, the largest capacity additions come from Middle East countries Figure 13.15 , notably Saudi Arabia 3.10 mb d , Iran 0.99 mb d and the...
NonOPEC production
Non-OPEC production of crude oil and NGLs in the Reference Scenario declines from 44.8 mb d in 2007 to 43.5 mb d in 2015 and then falls further to 42.9 mb d in 2030 Table 11.3 . Non-conventional oil production, in contrast, rises from 1.5 mb d in 2007 to 7.9 mb d in 2030. Most of the decline in conventional production is a result of falling output levels in OECD countries, but that same group accounts for three-quarters of the increase in non-conventional oil output. Investment in exploration...
Most incremental oil and gas will come from OPEC if they invest enough
World oil supply is projected to rise from 84 mb d in 2007 to 106 mb d in 2030 in the Reference Scenario. Netting out processing gains in refining, global production reaches 104 mb d. Although global oil production in total is not expected to peak before 2030, production of conventional oil - crude oil, natural gas liquids NGLs and enhanced oil recovery EOR - is projected to level off towards the end of the projection period. Conventional crude oil production alone increases only modestly over...
Buildings and other sectors
Worldwide, direct emissions from fossil-fuel consumption mainly for heating in the residential, services and agriculture sector called here buildings and other sectors grow at 0.2 per year on average between 2006 and 2030 in the 550 Policy Scenario, compared with a 0.8 growth rate in the Reference Scenario. If we attribute the CO2 emissions from upstream power generation to this sector as a whole, according to its electricity use, CO2 emissions at world level grow by 0.4 per year from 2006 to...
Regional implications of the Policy Scenario
There are significant variations in additional investment needs among groups in the 550 Policy Scenario. The OECD group incurs by far the highest increases in investment in electricity generation and in efficiency Figure 19.2 . Other Major Economies undertake an additional 170 billion investment in power plants, 8 more than in the Reference Scenario, but face a more substantial increase in investment in energy efficiency. Relative to the other groups of countries, the additional spending on...
Figure Finding and development costs for US FRS companies
Former Soviet Union Middle East US onshore Other Eastern Hemisphere US average Worldwide Canada Europe Africa Other Western Hemisphere US offshore 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Dollars 2006 per barrel of oil equivalent Note FRS is Financial Reporting System. Three-year weighted averages of exploration and development expenditures excluding expenditures for proven acreage , divided by reserve additions excluding net purchases of reserves . Natural gas is converted to equivalent barrels of oil at 178.1...
SubSaharan Africa
Edward Caldwell Heleen de Coninck Karim Dahou Stanislas Drochon Jean-Pierre Favennec Stephen Gitonga Beejaye Kokil Michael Levitsky Directorate-General Environment, European Commission The Energy and Resources Institute, India HM Treasury, UK Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey Constellation Energy, US Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership, Austria Vienna University of Technology, Austria International Atomic Energy Agency...
Figure Oilimport dependence by major importing region in the Reference Scenario
OECD North America United States China Other Asia OECD Europe OECD Pacific European Union India 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Increased trade consolidates global interdependence, but the risk to consuming countries of short-term supply interruptions grows as geographic supply diversity is actually reduced, increasing reliance on a few supply routes. Much of the additional oil imports will come from the Middle East, the scene of most of the biggest supply disruptions in the past, and will transit...
But fieldbyfield declines in oil production are accelerating
Globally, oil resources might be plentiful, but there can be no guarantee that they will be exploited quickly enough to meet the level of demand projected in our Reference Scenario. One major uncertainty concerns the rate at which output from producing oilfields declines as they mature. This is a critical determinant of the amount of new capacity and investment that will be needed globally to meet projected demand. The findings of a detailed field-by-field analysis of the historical production...
Investment implications of the Policy Scenario 1
The 450 Policy Scenario requires additional investment of 3.6 trillion in power plants and 5.7 trillion in energy efficiency over the period 2010-2030 relative to the Reference Scenario.7 This additional investment is much higher in the period g 7. Investment in biofuels in 2010-2030 is 127 billion higher than in the Reference Scenario. 2021-2030 than in the period 2010-2020 Figure 19.8 . In the 450 Policy Scenario, substantially higher investment is needed in power plants. Post-2020, this...
Summary of projections in the Reference Scenario
In the Reference Scenario, world oil production rises not including processing gains by 26 , from 82.3 mb d in 2007 to 103.8 mb d in 2030. Declines in crude oil production at existing fields those already in production in 2007 are more than compensated for by output from fields under or awaiting development and, mainly in the last decade of the Outlook period, fields that are yet to be found Figure 11.1 . Worldwide, production of conventional crude oil alone increases only modestly, from 70.2...
Figure Incremental primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario
Africa Latin America E. Europe Eurasia Other Asia Middle East OECD India China -500 Other includes biomass and waste, and other renewables. Changes in the fuel mix vary considerably across regions. In the OECD, where overall demand grows very slowly over the projection period, oil demand falls slightly, while gas and non-hydro renewables make up most of the increase in energy demand. Demand in Eastern Europe and Eurasian countries including Russia grows by only 336 Mtoe between 2006 and 2030,...
Oilfield production profiles and characteristics
Every oilfield follows a unique production profile, according to the natural characteristics of the reservoirs within it, the manner in which it is developed and production-management policies. Typically, an oilfield goes through a build-up phase, during which production rises as newly drilled wells are brought into production, a period of plateau production, during which output typically is broadly flat as new wells are brought on stream offsetting declines at the oldest producing wells, and a...
Contribution of new fields to crude oil production
Despite continuing investment in the world's existing fields, their aggregate output begins to decline already in 2008, as declines at mature fields outweigh increases at fields recently brought on stream. Output from new conventional oilfields, not yet in production, makes the biggest contribution to compensating for this loss of capacity and meeting rising global oil demand, with the remainder coming from non-conventional sources and from enhanced oil recovery at both existing fields and...
Understanding production patterns and trends
An understanding of oilfield production profiles and the impact of various geological and economic variables on the shape of production curves is critically important to projecting future output from fields already in production or from fields that are yet to be brought into production. A major finding of past Outlooks is that the future rate of production decline from producing fields aggregated across all regions is the single most important determinant of the amount of new capacity that...
How soon if ever could oil recovery factors be raised to
A 2007 study by the US National Petroleum Council lists advances in technology that offer the potential to improve oil recovery factors. It estimates that the biggest impact would come from technologies that maximise the effective reservoir contact between the well bore and the formation through various techniques, such as controlled multi-lateral drain holes, improvements in the efficiency of secondary and tertiary recovery, better imaging of reservoirs and production management in real-time,...
Box Projected energyrelated CO emissions compared with WEO
Energy-related CO2 emissions are 3.2 lower in 2030 than projected in last year's WEO, due to significantly lower consumption of fossil fuels, mainly oil. Our higher price assumptions for fossil fuels, again notably oil, stimulate more energy conservation and faster uptake of more efficient end-use technologies. They also promote faster deployment of low-carbon supply-side technologies, such as renewables and nuclear power. In addition, a number of new government policies and measures have been...
Regional trends Mzl
Historical patterns of energy-related CO2 emissions vary widely across the globe Figure 16.3 . Emissions in 13 OECD countries increased by more than 20 between 1990 and 2006, while the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Sweden and the United Kingdom reduced their emissions over the same period. OECD emissions overall increased by 16 between 1990 and 2006, while those of non-OECD countries in aggregate shot up by 52 , in line with their faster economic growth, causing...
Trends per capita and per unit of GDP
World CO2 emissions per capita had been declining until around 2000 but have risen rapidly since. This upward trend is set to continue through to 2030 Table 16.3 . The OECD currently has higher average per-capita emissions than non-OECD regions though the range is wide between non-OECD countries . In 2006, per-capita emissions in the United States amounted to 18.6 tonnes, followed by Russia with 11 tonnes, Japan with 9.5 tonnes and the European Union with 8 tonnes. China's per-capita emissions...
Sectoral trends Power generation
Fossil-fuel power plants emitted 11.4 Gt of CO2 in 2006, 41 of the world total. This share has been rising steadily, from 36 in 1990 and 39 in 2000, and continues to grow in the Reference Scenario, to 44 in 2020 and 45 in 2030. Power-sector CO2 emissions reach 16 Gt in 2020 and 18 Gt in 2030. Cumulatively, power generation contributes over half the increase in energy-related CO2 emissions to 2030 in the Reference Scenario. This growth is driven by the relatively rapid growth in demand for...
Interregional trade Ujn
Inter-regional natural gas trade between major WEO regions is projected to more than double over the projection period, from 441 bcm in 2006 to around 1 tcm in 2030 Table 4.3 . Trade rises much faster than demand, due to the pronounced geographical mismatch between resource location and demand. As a result, regional gas markets become more integrated as trade in LNG expands and new long-distance and undersea pipelines enable more gas to be traded between regions. Imports rise in all the regions...
Regional trends
Energy demand in non-OECD countries exceeded that in OECD countries in 2005 for the first time ever Figure 2.2 . The faster pace of demand growth outside the OECD is set to continue. Driven mainly by brisk growth in China and India, non-OECD countries account for 87 of the increase in global demand between 2006 and 2030. As a result, the non-OECD share of world primary energy demand rises from 51 in 2006 to 62 by g 2. See Chapter 7 for a discussion of traditional biomass. 2030. Steady economic...
Wind power
Wind power has been growing at around 25 per year over the past few years. Worldwide, installed wind power capacity rose from about 6 GW in 1996 to 74 GW in 2006 and to 94 GW in 2007, with over 60 installed in OECD Europe. Germany has the largest installed capacity in the world, reaching 20.6 GW in 2006 and over 22 GW in 2007. Germany and Spain together account for about two-thirds of installed wind power capacity in OECD Europe. The rapid growth of wind power in these two countries is largely...
Reserves growth and enhanced oil recovery
Reserves growth, which refers to the increase in recoverable reserves from a discovered oil or gas field that occurs over the life of the field as it is appraised, developed and 8 produced, is expected to be a major contributor to additions to reserves in the coming lt decades. It derives from three factors Klett, 2004 Geological factors The delineation of additional reserves through new seismic acquisition, appraisal drilling or the identification using well-bore measurements , of reservoirs...
Figure Proven coal reserves in leading producing countries
Rest of world Kazakhstan Ukraine South Africa India Australia China Russia United States Between 2006 and 2030, world coal production is projected to rise by almost 60 , or over 2 610 Mtce Table 5.2 . The United States remains far and away the biggest producer in the OECD, its production rising by 19 between 2006 and 2030. Production in OECD Europe continues its steady decline. The removal of subsidies, notably in Germany, leads to the closure of high-cost mines. Coal output in OECD Pacific is...
Figure Offshore rigs under construction and effective utilisation rates
Semi-submersible rigs and drillships. Sources Baker Hughes rig count www.bakerhughesdirect.com Spears and Associates 2007 IEA database and analysis. Semi-submersible rigs and drillships. Sources Baker Hughes rig count www.bakerhughesdirect.com Spears and Associates 2007 IEA database and analysis.
Carbondioxide enhanced oil recovery COEOR
CO2-EOR, which involves the injection of CO2 into oil reservoirs, is receiving increased attention because of the potential availability of CO2 from anthropogenic sources and the environmental benefits of carbon sequestration. There are currently more than 100 CO2-EOR projects in the world today, most of them in North America, producing 300 kb d of additional oil. In most cases, the CO2 is extracted from produced natural gas. In the United States alone, the contribution from CO2-EOR has been...
Enhanced oil recovery EOR
Production using EOR technology is projected to contribute an additional 6.4 mb d 3 to world oil supply in 2030, with most of the increase occurring after 2015 Figure 11.10 . Three-quarters of this increase comes from just four countries the United States, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and China in ranked order . Cumulative production in 2007-2030 amounts to 24 billion barrels, out of an estimated potential of about 300 billion barrels - of which one-third is in Saudi Arabia see Chapter 9 . Most of the...
Proven reserves
Various organisations compile and report data on oil and gas reserves, using national and company sources. The most widely quoted primary sources of global proven oil reserves 1P data are the Oil and Gas Journal O amp GJ and the World Oil Journal. OPEC compiles data for its member countries, and publishes this together with data for other countries drawn from BP. IHS compiles data for 2P reserves only. Other organisations, including BP, publish their own global estimates based mainly on data...
OECD Oceania
Natural gas reserves in Australia and New Zealand stand at 2.5 tcm, the bulk of which are located in remote locations in offshore Western Australia. In addition to conventional natural gas, Australia has extensive deposits of coalbed methane. Australia is fast becoming an important LNG player in the Asia-Pacific region, helping to compensate for Indonesia's declining role as an exporter of LNG. Australia's Santos recently announced its proposed Gladstone LNG project is for a 3 to 4 million...
Current and projected energy use in cities
Our detailed analysis of current city energy use focuses particularly on four regions the United States, the European Union, Australasia defined here as Australia and New Zealand , and China. In the first three, city energy use per capita is roughly the same as the national average Table 8.1 . Cities in the European Union tend to use less energy per capita than US and Australasian cities, because of higher population densities, more extensive urban public transport systems, and more district...
Nonconventional oil
Non-conventional oil - extra-heavy oil excluding Venezuela , oil sands, chemical additives, gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids - is expected to play an important role in offsetting the decline in production from existing fields and supplementing supplies from new conventional oilfields and NGLs. The global supply of non-conventional oil is projected to increase from 1.7 mb d in 2007 to 8.8 mb d in 2030 Figure 11.12 . Canadian oil-sands projects make, by far, the largest contribution, increasing...
Info
Estimates of ultimately recoverable conventional resources, including cumulative 8 production, remaining proven and probable reserves, reserves growth and undiscovered lt resources, vary widely. In its 2000 assessment, the US Geological Survey estimated ultimately recoverable resources at at 436 tcm in its mean case USGS, 2000 . Adjusted for cumulative production and changes in reserves since that assessment, remaining resources including proven reserves, undiscovered resources and reserves...
Longterm oilsupply cost curve
We have updated the oil-supply cost curve, which we first produced three years ago IEA, 2005 ,4 based on the latest estimates of resource potential and the estimated range of 4. The IEA will be updating in 2009 the Resources to Reserves study, first published in 2005 IEA, 2005 , with an extended coverage of resources and technologies. current costs of production. The curve plots the potential long-term contributions from conventional resources including those defined above as conventional oil...
The global powergeneration mix
By 2030, the share of fossil fuels in the electricity generation mix falls from 66 in the Reference Scenario to 55 in the 550 Policy Scenario, the current share being 67 . The largest fall is in the share of coal, which drops to 32 in 2030 - 12 percentage points lower than in the Reference Scenario Figure 18.7 . Figure 18.7 Fuel shares in world electricity generation in the Reference and 550 Policy Scenarios Figure 18.7 Fuel shares in world electricity generation in the Reference and 550 Policy...
Box Methodological issues and city energy data
There is no international consensus on the definition of a city. For reasons of data availability, in this Outlook city refers to all urban areas, from mega-cities to smaller-scale urban settlements. City energy data are difficult to find, often incomplete and rarely in a format that allows comparisons between cities or with national data. Once data are acquired, analysis requires consideration of city boundary issues - what energy was consumed within the city, how to deal with energy supplied...