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2005 H2030 annual average growth rate Figure 1.3 Primary Energy Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario Figure 1.4 Regional Shares in Incremental Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables OECD Transition economies Developing countries Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables OECD Transition economies Developing countries Global primary energy intensity, measured as total energy use per unit of gross domestic product, is projected to fall on...
Why Does the Government Need to Reform Gas Prices
Gas produced by India's public-sector companies is sold at controlled prices under the Administered Pricing Mechanism APM . Many of these prices are below open market prices. APM gas currently accounts for about 60 of the gas sold in India but its share is expected to decline. Gas that is not covered by APM includes imported LNG, gas produced from fields exploited by companies with production-sharing contracts and gas to be produced from finds made under the New Exploration Licensing Policy...
Chapter Overview of the Energy Sector
8.1 Key Energy Indicators for China 263 8.2 Selected Targets for Improvements in Energy Efficiency in the 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy 276 Chapter 9. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 9.1 Key Assumptions for China's Energy Projections in the Reference Scenario 285 9.2 Energy Intensity in Selected Power-Generation Technologies and End-Use Sectors in the Reference Scenario 286 9.3 China's Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario 287 9.4 Industrial Energy Demand in the Reference...
Box Modelling Economic and Energy Interlinkages the WEMECO Model
The IEA World Energy Model WEM is a partial equilibrium model with a rich technology representation of all energy sectors. The bottom-up structure of the model makes use of the extensive IEA statistical databases. Regional GDP growth rates and international fuel prices are exogenous. For the purposes of the High Growth Scenario, we developed in collaboration with the Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le D veloppement CIRED a French research institute a hybrid model,...
Chapter Energy Trends in China and India
2.1 Shares of China and India in the Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 118 2.2 Primary Oil Demand in China and India by Sector 2.3 Fuel Mix in Power Generation in China and India 2.4 Road Transport Fuel Consumption in China and India 2.5 Net Oil Imports in China and India in the Reference Scenario 125 2.6 Coal Balance in China and India in the Reference Scenario 127 2.7 Cumulative Investment in Energy Supply in China and India by Fuel in the...
Chinas Energy Sector
In less than a generation, China has moved from being a minor and largely self-sufficient energy consumer to become the world's fastest-growing energy consumer and a major player on the global energy market. Soaring energy use is both a driver and a consequence of the remarkable growth in the country's economy especially in heavy industry. For many years, China was able to meet its rapidly growing energy needs entirely from domestic resources, so its impact on global markets was minimal. That...
Share of Natural Gas in Total Primary Energy Demand in China and India
2005 2030 2030 2030 Reference Alternative High 2005 2030 2030 2030 Reference Alternative High 2005 2030 2030 2030 Reference Alternative High 2005 2030 2030 2030 Reference Alternative High Although their current import needs are small in volume terms, the importance of China and India in global gas trade will increase particularly towards the end of the Outlook period. In the High Growth Scenario, their combined share of world inter-regional trade reaches 29 in 2030 11 percentage points more...
Box Regional Air Quality
Rising energy consumption and the continuing heavy reliance on coal is contributing not just to higher CO2 emissions but also to worsening air pollution in China and India. Fossil-energy use gives rise to various toxic and noxious emissions, notably SOx, NOx, carbon monoxide and particulate matter soot . These emissions contribute directly to health problems, ground-level and atmospheric ozone and acid rain. Many of these problems are of a local nature. Despite some improvements in recent...
The Stabilisation Case
There is growing support worldwide for early action to tackle climate change in order to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. At their summit in Heiligendamm in 2007, G8 leaders, meeting with the leaders of several major developing countries and heads of international organisations, including the IEA, committed to taking strong and early action to tackle climate change in order to stabilise greenhouse-gas...
Box Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of India
Most rural households in India depend on kerosene lamps for lighting. Kerosene prices are controlled by the government and are heavily subsidised. About 90 of rural kerosene is distributed through a public distribution system PDS , comprising state and district level officials, wholesalers and retailers fair-price shops . The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas fixes a quota for each state, according to historical patterns of supply rather than actual demand or relative poverty levels . A...
Energy Demand in Slums
Slum areas in India's major cities are growing. Despite this, there is no specific federal programme in place for extending energy access to the urban poor. The first-ever census of slums in India was undertaken in 2001. Slum data were reported by 26 of the 35 states and UTs. Some 43 million people lived in slums in 2001, about equivalent to the entire population of Spain. Those in slums constituted 15 of the total urban population and 22.6 of the urban population of the reporting states and...
Coal Resources and Reserves
China's remaining coal resources are second only to Russia's, totalling 1 003 billion tonnes General Geological Bureau, 1999 . These resources have been defined by exploration and mapping, but only 115 billion tonnes can be regarded as proven reserves, yielding a reserve-to-production ratio of around 50 years at current production levels. More recent assessments conclude that proven reserves could be as high as 192 billion tonnes Barlow Jonker, 2007 . A prospecting programme is currently under...
Coal Transport
Our Reference Scenario projections imply a continuing need to expand China's inland coal transport infrastructure. Shipments from inland to coastal provinces will need to increase from 507 Mtce in 2005 to 1 060 Mtce in 2030 for steam coal and from 117 to 182 Mtce for coking coal. At present, coal is transported to consumers in China by rail, road, inland waterways and coastal vessels. Shanxi is a key coal supplier to other provinces, exporting around 300 million tonnes, mainly by rail, with the...
Gun Fuel Shares in Household Energy Consumption for Cooking in India by Area in
2000 2005 2015 2030 2000 2005 2015 2030 Fuelwood BCoke and coal BDung I Kerosene BLPG I Electricity 2000 2005 2015 2030 2000 2005 2015 2030 Fuelwood BCoke and coal BDung I Kerosene BLPG I Electricity Sources NSSO 2007 and IEA analysis. Electricity use by Indian households is growing rapidly, even in rural areas, though most of the increase in demand in absolute terms is in towns and cities. Lighting accounts for about 70 of electricity use in the residential sector. Refrigeration and air...
Coal Trade
China exported 71 Mt of coal in 2005, one-quarter below 2003 when exports peaked at 94 Mt. Imports totalled 25 Mt, mainly to meet demand in southern coastal provinces remote from the major coal-producing regions. In the first half of 2007, China's net coal imports stood at 4 Mt McCloskey, 2007 , a sharp reversal from the 25 Mt net exports of 2006. As recently as 2003, net exports were 83 Mt. This sudden swing to become a net coal importer has had a large impact on international coal trade. The...
Primary Energy Demand 1
Primary energy demand in India is projected to increase from 537 Mtoe in 2005 to 770 Mtoe in 2015 and to 1 299 Mtoe in 2030 Table 16.2 . Demand grew by 3.5 per year in 1990-2005. Energy demand growth is somewhat faster in 2005-2015 at 3.7 per annum, slowing again to 3.5 in 2015-2030. As GDP growth is faster over the Outlook period, intensity improves more quickly than in the past. In 2025, India's energy demand passes that of the entire OECD Pacific region it equals 60 today. By 2030, India is...
Methodology and Assumptions
As in previous Outlooks, a scenario approach has been adopted to examine future energy developments. The projection period runs to 2030. The core projections are derived from a Reference Scenario, which assumes that there are no new energy-policy interventions by governments. This scenario is intended to provide a baseline vision of how global energy markets are likely to evolve if governments do nothing more to affect underlying trends in energy demand and supply, thereby allowing us to test...
Electricity Pricing
Historically, until at least 2002, coal was sold to generators at prices below market values. Prices were determined annually at an Annual Coal Procurement Conference run by central government authorities. In 2004, the NDRC adopted a new scheme linking coal prices for electricity generation to on-grid wholesale power prices. The scheme allows generators to pass through to consumers approximately 70 of any increase in coal prices. An increase of 5 or more triggers an automatic adjustment to...
REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND PROJECTIONS Hae
Primary energy demand in India more than doubles by 2030 in the Reference Scenario, driven largely by GDP which is assumed to expand at an average annual rate of 6.3 . Coal remains the most important fuel, but oil demand also grows fast, increasing two-and-a-half times by 2030. Energy intensity declines progressively thanks to efficiency improvements and a continuation of the shift to services and less energy-intensive industry. A reduction in the share of fuelwood and dung in residential...
On Energy Poverty
Part A Global Energy Prospects Impact of Developments in India Energy Trends in China and India 117 Alternative Policy Scenario 130 International Trade and the World Economy 135 China and India in the Global Economy 136 Explaining China's and India's Economic Growth 136 International Trade and Financial Flows 140 Global Economic and Energy Market Linkages 145 Simulating the Impact of Faster Growth in China and India 149 Energy and Other Commodity Prices and Expenditures 151 Economic Growth and...
Acknowledgements
This study was prepared by the Economic Analysis Division of the International Energy Agency in co-operation with other divisions of the IEA. The Director of the Long-Term Office, No van Hulst, provided guidance and encouragement during the project. The study was designed and managed by Fatih Birol, Head of the Economic Analysis Division EAD . Other members of EAD who were responsible for bringing the study to completion include Maria Argiri, Raffaella Centurelli, Michael-Xiaobao Chen, Laura...
